However evaluated, primary results in North Carolina and Indiana represent a sea change in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Barck Obama achieved a decisive victory in North Carolina while the Indiana race ended in a virtual tie with a 51% to 49% margin in favor of Hillary Clinton.
Senator Clinton will continue to claim Indiana as a victory, but it was hardly that, as the fallout during coming weeks will demonstrate. Funds will be harder for her already strapped campaign to raise. Undeclared super delegates, anxious to bring the ordeal to a close with the outcome is no longer in doubt, may move in larger numbers toward Obama. Undecided primary voters may move more easily toward Obama now that his electability is established, despite continuing talk of his limited experience for office. Tim Russert of NBC news will remain correct with his primary night pronouncement that the Clinton campaign is finished.
As several commentators note, how Hillary Clinton accepts defeat will affect the Presidential race following the party conventions. Clinton can go ahead defiantly into the concluding six primaries, expressing determination to fight to the end while attempting to force a decision favorable to seating Florida and Michigan delegates from the Democratic rules committee. During this time, she can hope for and attempt to create an issue so damaging to Obama that the super delegates move in her favor despite the popular vote margin against her. Continuing to fight for nomination based primarily on forcing acceptance from remaining super delegates risks crippling patty chances in November. A quick move by remaining super delegates to endorse Obama is the only insurance against further damage at this point.
Clinton’s other choice in how she continues would be to use campaign appearances to reestablish party unity with support behind the obviously winning candidate. This shift in emphasis would be subtle but perceptible to voters who could still cast votes in her favor but with an eye already open to supporting Obama after the convention. While still concentrating on campaign themes, Clinton could begin to emphasize commonality over small differences between the two campaign positions, referring to Senator Obama in ways that enhance voter acceptance of transferred allegiance.
Campaign analysis seems split between these scorched earth and reconciliation options, with the majority perhaps wishfully leaning toward the latter approach. While leaving the door still open for reconciliation, Clinton seems likely to pursue scorched earth tactics through the Kentucky and West Virginia primaries at least.
Obama’s best option during this time is to run an entirely positive campaign, clearly defining issues that divide him from both Clinton and McCain while remaining open to accepting Clinton’s capitulation whenever it comes. He seems predisposed to provide Senator Clinton a way to retire her campaign with dignity, avoiding the old winner-looser dichotomy in favor of an arrangement allowing both candidates to gain from their common experience. Such an approach would definitely signal the new politics Obama proposes.
Kentucky and West Virginia seem favorable to Clinton. Voters accustomed to a life of economic hardship may gain satisfaction from supporting what they perceive as her heroic attempt to gain final victory against the odds. These predominantly Caucasian, blue-collar voters are also less likely to vote for Obama on racial grounds, at least as their initial choice for the Democratic nomination. Obama is also an unknown quantity for these voters while Clinton is more familiar primarily because of her husband’s career.
Were Clinton to use campaign appearances during the coming weeks to build support for the now presumptive winner, she would serve the party well and also show some degree of selfless devotion to her professed Democratic ideals. In so doing, she would assure herself of greater influence in the new administration, perhaps from a position of her choosing. With this goal in mind, she may opt to continue an aggressive campaign for the next few weeks, relenting only in time to name her chosen role within an Obama administration, thus providing opportunity for continued influence and advancement of the now combined Clinton legacy.
Were she to immediately concede the nomination, it is also certain that Hillary Clinton would gain a leading position either within the Obama administration or the Democratic party allowing her continued influence over her primary areas of concern, most notably universal healthcare based on a national health insurance policy accessible to all. The Obama campaign is already extending offers for compromise and reconciliation. These include proposals for seating delegates from Florida and Michigan without upsetting primary outcomes achieved in participating states. Another olive branch involves a proposed Obama campaign retirement of the Clinton campaign’s outstanding debt. This solution may meet with understandable disfavor from Obama campaign contributors.
The combined qualities of grace and magnanimity in both winning and losing show true character in events like this one. What plays out within the next two to three weeks may reveal more about the contenders than anything shown during the past several months. Voters may feel they already know these two exceptional candidates, and, if this is true, it can be hoped that their highest expectations of each will be realized in exactly how this grueling campaign comes to a close.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Monday, May 5, 2008
Positive Outcome to a Long Campaign
Though the past few weeks have been difficult for the Obama campaign with the re-emerging Jeremiah Wright issue, both Democratic candidates set a positive tone in Democratic Party fund raising speeches in North Carolina and Indiana, reaching a significant milestone in the Democratic Presidential campaign. This positive tone sets the ground for eventual reconciliation and reestablished party unity, recognizing that history is being made with either a Caucasian woman or an African American man probably occupying the White House for the first time in history.
Despite a few campaign ads described as negative or hypocritical by opposing camps, both candidates have kept to issues in campaign appearances during the past few weeks, clearly defining differences especially over gas tax suspension and Iraq/Iran policy. Voters now have a clearer picture of contrasting leadership stiles, one combative and driven, the other calm and thoughtful, but both committed and determined to succeed.
Though the media driven Wright controversy continued to trouble the Obama campaign, Obama’s handling of the issue showed voters his calm and steady approach under pressure. Clinton has shown restraint in this instance regarding the Wright issue, refusing for whatever reason to add to previous prejudicial comments. Her campaign presentation has also abandoned the somewhat strident tone of previous weeks, resulting in a more positive appeal to voters.
This positive result is healthy for both candidates and for the Democratic party as the campaign moves toward the final primaries ending June third. Negative aspects of the campaign have made it seem long and grueling to contenders and supporters alike, but positive results are now beneficial for the nation and for the contestants as well. States with no previous voice in campaign selection have been able to participate right to the end.
Obama has developed campaign poise and strategy under fire from concerted media and Clinton campaign opposition. Should Obama emerge as the chosen Democratic candidate, McCain and the Republicans will have little if any legitimate negative charges to lodge against him.
The revived positive tone in both campaigns has to be seen as a victory for Democratic forces regardless of the eventual campaign outcome. Negative concentration threatened to hand the election to the Republicans on a silver platter in a contest where they otherwise had little chance to prevail. News media obsession with Jeremiah Wright’s contentious view of American racism served only to increase doubt among white voters as to whether they would vote for an African American, threatening to send American society reeling back to the divisive racism of the past. Fortunately, the candidates themselves, especially Barack Obama, have done much to lift the campaign out of these dangers and to reestablish it as a healthy exercise in voter choice.
The lesson from this is that positive endeavor never seems too long or too wearisome, though sheer physical fatigue will certainly occur. We find fulfillment in what we accomplish. There is only regret for what we destroy, even if the destruction is necessary. Clearing away rubble to build a new house is one thing; destroying a thing of established value to supplant it with something of questionable value is quite another.
Both campaigns have positioned themselves to reap the victory of Democratic unity and ultimate campaign success following the convention. An atmosphere is now reestablished where either campaign can be strengthened for the Presidential contest ending in November. We owe both candidates, especially Barack Obama, a vote of thanks for overcoming negatives and regaining positive ground despite all odds.
Despite a few campaign ads described as negative or hypocritical by opposing camps, both candidates have kept to issues in campaign appearances during the past few weeks, clearly defining differences especially over gas tax suspension and Iraq/Iran policy. Voters now have a clearer picture of contrasting leadership stiles, one combative and driven, the other calm and thoughtful, but both committed and determined to succeed.
Though the media driven Wright controversy continued to trouble the Obama campaign, Obama’s handling of the issue showed voters his calm and steady approach under pressure. Clinton has shown restraint in this instance regarding the Wright issue, refusing for whatever reason to add to previous prejudicial comments. Her campaign presentation has also abandoned the somewhat strident tone of previous weeks, resulting in a more positive appeal to voters.
This positive result is healthy for both candidates and for the Democratic party as the campaign moves toward the final primaries ending June third. Negative aspects of the campaign have made it seem long and grueling to contenders and supporters alike, but positive results are now beneficial for the nation and for the contestants as well. States with no previous voice in campaign selection have been able to participate right to the end.
Obama has developed campaign poise and strategy under fire from concerted media and Clinton campaign opposition. Should Obama emerge as the chosen Democratic candidate, McCain and the Republicans will have little if any legitimate negative charges to lodge against him.
The revived positive tone in both campaigns has to be seen as a victory for Democratic forces regardless of the eventual campaign outcome. Negative concentration threatened to hand the election to the Republicans on a silver platter in a contest where they otherwise had little chance to prevail. News media obsession with Jeremiah Wright’s contentious view of American racism served only to increase doubt among white voters as to whether they would vote for an African American, threatening to send American society reeling back to the divisive racism of the past. Fortunately, the candidates themselves, especially Barack Obama, have done much to lift the campaign out of these dangers and to reestablish it as a healthy exercise in voter choice.
The lesson from this is that positive endeavor never seems too long or too wearisome, though sheer physical fatigue will certainly occur. We find fulfillment in what we accomplish. There is only regret for what we destroy, even if the destruction is necessary. Clearing away rubble to build a new house is one thing; destroying a thing of established value to supplant it with something of questionable value is quite another.
Both campaigns have positioned themselves to reap the victory of Democratic unity and ultimate campaign success following the convention. An atmosphere is now reestablished where either campaign can be strengthened for the Presidential contest ending in November. We owe both candidates, especially Barack Obama, a vote of thanks for overcoming negatives and regaining positive ground despite all odds.
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